Which Rookie QB will start first?

There were four Quarterbacks drafted in the opening two rounds of the 2017 NFL Draft, three of which went in the top 13 picks.  Although we haven't started the pre-season matches, or even training camp,  it looks likely that none of the aspiring play callers will be the starter for their respective teams in Week one.  But who will win the race and make it onto the field first?

The Contenders

Trubisky was picked 3rd overall

Mitchell Trubisky - Chicago Bears

When Commissioner Goodell read out   Trubisky's name as the third overall pick and revealed the Tarheel would be heading to Chicago, the NFL world went into a state of shock. Nobody, including Mr. Biscuit himself, had seen it coming and it was almost certainly the biggest talking point of the first round.  

A large part of it being such a surprising move was the fact that, in free agency, the Bears had signed Mike Glennon to a rather large contract which includes $19 million guaranteed. Another main factor was that Trubisky, like all the other QB's in his class, wasn't that highly rated coming out of North Carolina and expert consensus was that he wasn't a top 10 prospect and would go at Pick 5 at the earliest (and even that would be a reach).  

There's no doubt in my mind that the intention of the Bears is for Trubisky to sit for at least the whole of the 2017 season but history tells us this is not at all likely.  My prediction is that Glennon will have lead the Bears to a 2-6 record before their bye in Week 9 and that this won't be deemed acceptable by the franchise.  I wouldn't be at all surprised if we saw Trubisky out on Soldier Field  against the Packers in Week 10.

Predicted first start: Week 10 (2017)
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Mahomes was picked 10th overall

Patrick Mahomes II - Kansas City Chiefs

I'm going to be honest with you, I love the upside of Pat Mahomes.  The problem is, he has a long way to go to reach that ceiling - the kid is raw.  

The Chiefs however, seem to think they can get the best out of the gun slinger and were willing to trade up to Pick 10 in order to get him.  I don't think Mahomes could have landed in a better spot as coach Andy Reid managed to get the best out of similar raw talents such as Donovan McNabb and Michael Vick, but he is definitely a long term project. 

KC can afford to play the long game with developing Mahomes as current starting quarterback Alex Smith continues to be a solid player for the AFC West champions, but I don't think he quite has the ability to take them to a Superbowl.  Because of this, I predict that the Chiefs, with Smith at the wheel, will finish with an 8-8 record in 2017 and narrowly miss out on a playoff spot.  The following year, Mahomes shows he has developed the skills to start in the preseason and is first on the depth chart for the 2018 season opener.

Predicted first start: Week 1 (2018)
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Watson was picked 12th overall

Deshaun Watson - Houston Texans

Most people felt Watson was the most NFL ready quarterback in the draft coming out of championship winning Clemson, so it was no surprise that Houston, a win now team, was where he ended up.

Watson proved he could perform on the big stage in college but the professional game is a completely different fish altogether.  There are concerns about many of his physical attributes but perhaps his biggest issue is the fact that he doesn't seem to like to take care of the football.  He threw 30 interceptions in his last two years at Clemson and in a league where turnovers decide games, if he can't learn to play smarter then Watson's career won't be long one.

One good thing going for Watson is that his competition for the Texans starting job is Tom Savage.  Don't get me wrong, Savage isn't bad but he's not gonna set the world alight and take the Texans to the promise land.  Despite this, I think he'll probably be good enough to start in Week 1 but my prediction is that after a 2-1 start, Savage limps off injured in the fourth quarter of the Week 4 divisional clash against the Titans and, after coming in late in the game and showing some promise, Watson gets the start in Week 5 against the Chiefs.  Whether he proves good enough to keep the job when Savage returns from his injury I'm not sure, but he will have a chance.

Predicted first start: Week 5 (2017)
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Kizer was picked 52nd overall

DeShone Kizer - Cleveland Browns

When this year's draft process was beginning many experts, including the well respected Mike Mayock, had Kizer as the best quarterback in the class but the longer time went on, the lower his stock seemed to drop.  I do however, think that the Browns were clever to avoid the early QB rush and snag the Notre Dame prospect in the second round.

Kizer had a superb 2015 season for the Fighting Irish but after losing  weapons such as Will Fuller at the end of the campaign, had a very disappointing Junior year in 2016.  Kizer has a great frame and an impressive arm but there are real concerns about his ability to go through progressions as well his tendency to drop his eyes when under pressure, traits that don't translate well to the NFL. 

I think the battle for the Browns starting job between Kessler and Kizer will be an interesting one this offseason but I believe Kessler's extra year of knowledge of the playbook will give him the edge.  But like all Browns quarterbacks, Kessler will undoubtedly get injured and, sadly, I can't even see him finishing their first game against the hard hitting Steelers.  Despite him not being ready, Coach Jackson will be forced to throw Kizer in against the Ravens in Week 2.

Predicted first start: Week 2 (2017)

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The Winner

DeShone Kizer - Cleveland Browns

Based purely on the situation and the fact that the Browns can't keep the same QB on the field for more than a couple of snaps, I believe Kizer will be the first rookie quarterback to start an NFL game.

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