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Locks and Shocks: Week 8

26/10/2017

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Each week Dan Barber, Fergus Head, Reece Mowlem and Owen Turner pick one team who is a lock and certain to win their game and one team who will cause a shock and win their game despite being the underdog.  Below are this week's picks.

Dan Barber
Lock: BENGALS over Colts
Andy Dalton will carve up a questionable Colts secondary that just lost their exciting rookie safety Malik Hooker for the year. I expect A.J Green to have an explosive day, while Mixon also finds productivity in the ground game. An easy victory for the AFC North outfit.
Shock:  BILLS over Raiders
And thus my streak has ended. Getting to the 5-game streak appears to be a bit difficult over here at the FDP. Despite coming off an emphatic win over the Chiefs last week, I expect the Raiders to struggle against a Bills team that has been tough on defence through the first half of the season. I expect low fantasy outputs from all Raiders players, and I expect this game to be very low-scoring indeed. I'm even going to suggest a score: 12-10 in favour of the Bills.

Fergus Head
Lock: EAGLES over 49ers
Eagles pummel a useless 49ers team. NEXT.
Shock: BUCCANEERS over Panthers
Buccaneers win a divisional showdown against a bloke who can't stand behind a plinth without getting in trouble. The panthers are taking a down turn after some early season hype and the Bucs start to find the promised form.

Reece Mowlem
Lock: VIKINGS over Browns
I know, I know, I've taken the easy road with this one.  However, it is the only game that I can confidently call one way or the other.  The Browns shall lose once again and people will start to wonder if an 0-16 season is on the cards.  If so, I think Sam Darnold might elect to stay at college for one more year.
Shock: JETS over Falcons
The Falcons are low on confidence after a crushing defeat to the Patriots in last week's Super Bowl 51 rematch, a game in which they struggled on both sides of the ball.  On the flip side, despite also losing in week 7, the Jets have looked like a strong outfit at home so far this season and I can see them taking advantage of a struggling Atalanta side.  That Jets defence is sneaky underrated.

Owen Turner
Lock: SAINTS over Bears
Still 100% in the lock column despite the Titans running it eery close requiring overtime to overcome the lowly Browns. Moving onto this week I'm taking the Saints over the Bears. Chicago hasn't asked Mitch Trubisky to do much since he bacame the starter. Last week he shockingly on completed four passes the entire game!!! Yet still, the Bears have won their last two games through their defense and controlling the clock rather than putting pressure on the rookie to put up points. There is absolutely no way that strategy holds up in the Superdome against Drew Brees and a surging New Orleans squad, at home, who have won their last four. Saints all day long.
Shock: LIONS over Steelers
Back on track as well with shocks last week thanks to a dazzling performance from Derek Carr in a thriller against the Chiefs. This week we're going with the Lions to knock off the Steelers. Two bad losses for the Lions going into the bye week, but look for Matthew Stafford to bounce back against the Steelers defense. Said defense actually allows the fewest passing yards per game in the entire NFL, but look more closely at the opposition they've faced and you'll see that's a bogus statistic. (Hint, other than Alex Smith two weeks ago, the best QB they've played has been Andy Dalton)... I have faith in Matt Stafford whereas I currently have little in the Steelers. There is a general bad vibe around the team at the moment, mainly with the whole Martavius Bryant trade fiasco. I'm betting on that translating into a poor performance, in a tough environment on the road. So unless they can get Le'Veon Bell going against a stout Lions defensive front, I'm giving the Steelers the L.
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Locks and Shocks: Week 7

19/10/2017

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​Each week Dan Barber, Fergus Head, Reece Mowlem and Owen Turner pick one team who is a lock and certain to win their game and one team who will cause a shock and win their game despite being the underdog.  Below are this week's picks.

Dan Barber
Lock: COWBOYS over 49ers
After the news of the Zeke ban being reinstated, this matchup might have been closer than expected. But now that Zeke is eligible to play, I expect the 49ers losing streak to continue. Prescott and Elliott should dominate against a suspect defence and get their season back on track.
Shock:  REDSKINS over Eagles
I would like to take a moment to congratulate all of my fellow FDP writers, as last week each of us got our shocks correct. I currently stand at the 4 game streak mark, as do the Eagles, and it's clear whose is the more impressive streak... So therefore, I'm calling them out! Cousins and the Redskins will come away with an emphatic and shocking win against an Eagles team that up until this point has been one of the best teams in the league. Despite only JUST beating the 49ers a week ago, the Redskins up the ante and finally get the passing game thriving in this matchup. Cousins and Pryor finally connect, and Crowder begins to see more touches. It appears totally illogical, but then again, who'd have thought the Jets would be sitting at 3-3 (side-note, they should be at 4-2 if it wasn't for a RIDICULOUS call against that ASJ touchdown). Nonetheless, Eagles go to 5-2, while I hit my 5 game streak.

Reece Mowlem
Lock: BILLS over Buccaneers
Well, the Falcons didn't help me out last week.  I was as shocked as everyone else when Matt Ryan and co. managed to throw away a 17 point lead to Jay Cutler.  Yes that's right, Jay Cutler!  This week I'm putting my fate in the hands of one Tyrod Taylor.  The Bills have been one of the shock teams this year and are fresh coming off their bye week (though this didn't seem to help the Falcons) so should be as tough to beat at home as they have been all season.  The Buccaneers on the other hand, have had a poor start and I can't see things improving in Buffalo this Sunday.  In conclusion, the Bills will win (hopefully).
Shock: GIANTS over Seahawks
I don't really have any solid analysis to back up this prediction to be perfectly honest, I just have a strange feeling about this game.  The Giants seemed to turn a corner in Denver and the Seahawks are still yet to show me that they are a serious Super Bowl contender.  Eli's gonna pull off his second big shock in less than a week and pour further misery onto Seattle.  That's it.  Nuff said.

Owen Turner
Lock: TITANS over Browns
Thank God for the Titans that the Matt Cassell interlude only lasted a week. After a horror show against the Dolphins a week ago, the Titans bounced back with a commanding win Monday night against the Colts. I'm betting on them carrying that momentum forward and beating a winless Browns team on the road.
Shock: RAIDERS over Chiefs
Back on track with the shocks after a one week slip, albeit only a technical victory, with Aaron Rodgers going down in the first quarter effectively ending the Packers chances (both for the game and the season)... Either way, moving on... Going to take the Raiders, at home, to top a Chiefs team reeling from an embarrassingly bad loss to the Steelers. Look for a bounce back game from Derek Carr and perhaps even Amari Cooper. If the defense can hold the Chiefs under 25, the 2-4 Raiders have a shot.
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Locks and Shocks: Week 6

12/10/2017

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Each week Dan Barber, Fergus Head, Reece Mowlem and Owen Turner pick one team who is a lock and certain to win their game and one team who will cause a shock and win their game despite being the underdog.  Below are this week's picks.

Dan Barber
Lock: PATRIOTS over Jets
This may seem like the easy option, but then again, it is a lock. The NFL will return to normality this week and the Jets will go back to losing (as much as I wish the Jets would keep winning for my team of teams!) No crazy good analysis, simply that the Patriots are better than the Jets - full stop.
Shock:  BEARS over Ravens
Now my shocks haven't been quite as impressive as Owen's so far this year, but I am on a 3 game prediction streak. This week I found it particularly hard to choose an upset, but I eventually opted for the Bears to pick up their second win of the season over the Ravens. The Bears were unlucky not to win their game against the Vikings last week, with three key (questionable) penalties changing the outcome of the game. There is no question the Bears will find it tough on the road against a fearsome Ravens defence, but with a few more calls going their way, Trubisky might be able carve his way to a win against an arrogant Ravens team who waltzed in and wiped the floor with a depleted Raiders team a week ago.

Fergus Head
Lock: 49ERS over Redskins
Locks can be boring. So here goes a new format I'm trialling this week. A lock on a team ranked lower, because I'm just that bold.  The 49ers break their duck with a precious win against a dysfunctional Washington. The Redskins have been poor this year, and even coming off their bye, I dont see how they will have improved that much without some form of personnel change. Chris Thompson is not a workhorse back.
Shock: STEELERS over Chiefs
Wowee, what a way to end a winning streak; being defeated by a team with a QB who threw 5 picks the week before who is notoriously poor on the road. Big Ben, having lapped up the attention this week, goes out and shows he's still got it against the best team in the league.

Reece Mowlem
Lock: FALCONS over Dolphins
I'm man enough to admit I haven't been the best with my Locks and Shocks so far this season but that is about to change, STARTING NOW!  The Falcons may not have played up to the same level as last year as of yet, but they're still one of the best teams in the NFC.  On the flip side, the Dolphins have been poor with Cutler at the helm and are lucky to not be 0-4.  With Atlanta at home and fresh from their bye week, I can't see anything but a Falcons win in this matchup.
Shock: CARDINALS over Buccaneers
Jameis and the Bucs offence looked less than impressive against the worst defence in the league last Thursday night and the depleted defence wasn't much better.  The Cardinals also put in a poor performance as they were blown out by the high flying Eagles.  However, this week, with new running back Adrian Peterson ready to go, I have a feeling the Cardinals might finally click and take advantage of a struggling Tampa team and get the W.

​
Owen Turner
Lock: FALCONS over Dolphins
Miami snuck away with the win last week against the Mariotaless Titans at home, but did so in possibly the least impressive fashion possible. The loss of DeVante Parker looks like it could be fatal for an already struggling offense. The Falcons meanwhile are well rested fresh off the bye. My money is on them having too much offensive firepower for the Dolphins D to handle. Falcon at home all day.
Shock: VIKINGS over Packers
The streak is over people... It was a good run but 5-0 turned out to be too much to ask for as the Chiefs, quite comfortably despite the final scoreline, defeated the Texans on SNF. So trying to get back on track this week, I've decided to go bold. I've picked the Packers as my Lock several times this year but now I'm turning the tables. Facing the Vikings on the road is going to be a grudge match and I'm banking on the Vikings D, who are used to playing the transcended Aaron Rodgers, pulling out a statement performance and blowing the NFC North wide open. I'm hoping we see another huge games from Stefon Diggs and/or Adam Theieln to give the Vikings the push they need.
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Locks and Shocks: Week 5

5/10/2017

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​Each week Dan Barber, Fergus Head, Reece Mowlem and Owen Turner pick one team who is a lock and certain to win their game and one team who will cause a shock and win their game despite being the underdog.  Below are this week's picks.

Dan Barber
Lock: RAVENS over Raiders
Over the past two weeks I've been 0-2 in my locks and 2-0 in my shocks. Go figure. I'm determined to get it right this week, so I'm kicking a man while he's down. The Raiders are falling apart, with Amari Cooper demonstrating his inability to catch the football and Lynch beginning to struggle. Also, they will be Carr-less for at least a few weeks. I expect the Ravens to bounce back after two disappointing weeks against E.J Manuel and the Silver and Black.
Shock:  JAGUARS over Steelers
Yes, again I have gone for the team that is playing my team. The Jaguars have been branded a 'Jekyll and Hyde' team this year for their up and down start to the year. After their dismal performance against the Jets a week ago (see my last Shock), they will pick it up again against a Steelers team that perennially tends to play at the level of their opponent.

Fergus Head
Lock: BILLS over Bengals
And so the plight of the Bengals resumes its happy trudge. With the Bills and Tygod playing lights out, a lazer beam from Lesean McCoy will put to be the lazer-lead offense of the Bengals. Vontaze Burfict will have a big impact but nothing can stop the stampede that's coming.
Shock: BUCCANEERS over Patriots
Oh dear Tom. Oh dear oh dear. Brady puts together another undeniably GREAT performance, but his defence lets him down again. Perhaps it's time to address the decline of Bill Belichick more than that of TB12? Perhaps not. But still, the Bucs come through strong and Doug Martin has a nice start to his return against a very porous New England defence. Have fun out there, you only return from drug use once in a life... wait no my bad. Just have fun.

Reece Mowlem
Lock: LIONS over Panthers
Trying to find a lock in the current NFL climate is proving near on impossible but I have to choose someone, so here it is.  The Lions have surprised most this year by having one of the best defences in the league, adding to their already high flying offence guided by the great Matt Stafford.  I expect to see the Panthers brought back down to earth after their win against the Patriots and don't be shocked if this game is won with the final throw.
Shock: BEARS over Vikings
The Minnesota offence lost another key piece last week as rookie running back Dalvin Cook tore his ACL, ruling him out for the rest of the season.  Even if Sam Bradford is able to suit up on Monday night, I'm predicting the Bears to once again look good on their home field and vanquish the visiting Vikings.  What a way for Mitch Trubisky to start his NFL career.
​
Owen Turner
Lock: EAGLES over Cardinals
Not many games out there this week that look like a sure thing, so I'm going to go with the Eagles to take down the Cardinals. It's a tale of two Carsons here... I've so impressed with Carson Wentz progression this year and he's got the Eagles performing way above expectations, whilst at the same time we're seeing the inevitable regression of Carson Paler and the Cardinals are hovering at 2-2 with both wins coming by three points against the 1-4 Colts and the 0-4 49ers. Eagles at home all day.
Shock: TEXANS over Chiefs
Going for the big one here... Final undefeated team into the NFL loses at the five week mark. Despite the scorelines, the Chiefs only squeaked out a win at home against Washington and were handed the win by three Philip Rivers interceptions against the Chargers the week before. The Texans meanwhile just absolutely smoked a solid Titans team who were riding high off the win versus Seattle. DeShaun Watson has the confidence of this team sky-high right now after his 5 TD performance and I'm putting my record on the line that that confidence will carry the Texans to the W. Would also like to say a quick congrats to my fellow predictors this week, who ditched the technicalities and went for actual shocks and came through with them as well.
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Locks and Shocks: Week 4

28/9/2017

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Each week Dan Barber, Fergus Head, Reece Mowlem and Owen Turner pick one team who is a lock and certain to win their game and one team who will cause a shock and win their game despite being the underdog.  Below are this week's picks.

Dan Barber
Lock: FALCONS over Bills
What the f*** happened in the NFL last week. It was as though we entered some parallel universe where the normal rules of football didn't apply. For a start the Jets picked me up a win in my team of teams - a win I never thought I'd get. I digress. The Falcons will beat the Bills this week. They have too much firepower against a questionable Bills team. I expect them to continue their unbeaten streak.
Shock:  JETS over Jaguars
Now I know I just called last week a parallel universe, but I'm gonna go bold. The Jags absolutely dominated the Ravens last week to the point of embarrassment. They do have the unfortunate task of travelling back from London to the play the next week however, something that teams don't usually have to do, because they get a bye. Perhaps the Jags will be brimming with confidence this week, expecting to walk in and wipe the floor with the New York Pushovers. Something tells me it might not be so simple. But then again, perhaps things will return to normality this week. Who knows?
​

Fergus Head
Lock: FALCONS over Bills
Falcons beat the Bills in a game where Matt Ryan throws for over 400 yards for the first time this season. He bounces back in a big way against a solid team, who have just come off the back of beating one of the best teams in the league.
Shock: REDSKINS over Chiefs
Redskins beat the second AFC West team in as many weeks, shocking the football world with their sneaky defense again, holding Kareem Hunt to his first game under 100 scrimmage yards. Shocks, after last week, appear to be easier to predict than locks...

Reece Mowlem
Lock: PATRIOTS over Panthers
I actually found it difficult picking a lock this as last week has just thrown everything up in the air.  New England didn't look great against the Texans on Sunday, but I think they'll have it easier this week as a shaky Cam Newton roles into town without a couple of his main offensive weapons.  Oh and Tom Brady will throw for 400 yards again (probably).
Shock: CHARGERS over Eagles
Philly were my lock last week and thanks to a monster kick from Jake Elliott, I was proved correct.  This week, however, I'm not as confident in the Eagles as they travel to Los Angeles to face a Chargers team without a lot to prove.  Add to this that the Eagles are missing quite a few key players through injury and I wouldn't be surprised to see the Chargers break their losing streak.
​
Owen Turner
Lock: PACKERS over Bears
For the second week in a row I'm going for my Green Bay lock. Was a close run with the Bengals for them last week with overtime required to keep my 100% run going. The Bears had a great win against the Steelers last week but they don't stand a chance against a superior team on the road.
Shock: RAMS over Cowboys
There are a lot of even looking games throughout the NFL this week, so it was difficult to identify possibilities for actual shocks. I've settled on the Rams beating the Cowboys as the most likely outcome. This is mainly due to the performances of the Rams offense this season, with Goff easing some of the bust concerns to rest and Todd Gurley returning to form. The Cowboys haven't been that impressive this year, especially the beating they took from the Broncos in Week 2. I think if the Rams focus in on stopping Zeke and force Prescott to put up 20 points, I reckon the Rams come through with the win. (side note brag, it's one thing to be 100% in Locks, but in Shocks it's damn impressive... Congrats me)
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    Reece Mowlem

    Mowlem is a sports writer from Reading, United Kingdom.  All articles are written by Reece Mowlem (unless stated otherwise).

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