It's nearly that time of year, fantasy season is drawing closer. The mock draft rooms are starting to fill and the analysts and experts are releasing their Top 100 player lists. Although I'm not confident enough to release a full list of my own just yet, I will give you five players I think are being rated too highly at their position for the forthcoming season.
All rankings are taken from fantasypros.com's position rankings for PPR scoring.
Lamar Miller - Houston Texans
Miller was my second round pick last year in fantasy football and he disappointed me all season with his mediocrity. The Texan finished 18th amongst running backs in standard scoring leagues in his first season in Houston and only slightly higher in PPR scoring, not the the top 10 season many were expecting. Despite this, many have Miller ranked as a low end RB1 once again and I can't see why.
Last year Miller proved that he couldn't be a workhorse in the backfield as the large volume of carries caused him to lose his big play ability and pick up little injuries throughout the season. In addition to this, the Texans drafted D'Onta Foreman in the third round of the draft, a big back who is likely to take away some of Miller's carries on short yardage and potential touchdown plays.
To make matters worse, with the QB situation in Houston as it is, opposing teams are likely to stack the box and force either Savage or Watson to throw the ball, again hurting Miller's fantasy stock.
I can't see Miller being any higher than 18th again this year and I wouldn't be surprised if he fell out of the top 20 altogether.
Keenan Allen - LA Chargers
I don't have the best history with Keenan Allen either. I took him 11th overall in my main fantasy draft last year before watching him go down with an injury within the first half of the first game of the 2016 season. Although it's hard to shake such a harrowing memory from my mind, I have tried to leave it out of my decision making when it has come to my player rankings. However, injuries is the main reason I feel Allen won't have as good a season as many are expecting.
Over the last two seasons, the Chargers wideout has only played 9 games out of a possible 32 and he's only 25 years old. When fit, there is no doubt that Allen can be a highly productive fantasy player but his injury history alone is enough to scare me away for drafting him anywhere near to his ADP of Round 3.
On top of this, when Allen went down, Tyrell Williams stepped up and proved himself as solid a solid target for Rivers, as did Dontrelle Inman. The Chargers also drafted Mike Williams 7th overall to add to the list of pass catchers in LA that also includes the TE's Hunter Henry and Antonio Gates as well as the previously mentioned receivers.
For me, the combination of injury worries and the fact they are so many mouths for Rivers to feed sees Allen being a low WR2 in 2017.
Mark Ingram - New Orleans Saints
Poor Mark Ingram. When Tim Hightower left for the West Coast in the offseason it looked like Ingram was going to be a three down back for New Orleans but just over a month later, things don't look bright at all for the Saints running back.
Firstly, the Saints made the move to secure the services of veteran RB Adrian Peterson in free agency and I don't think AP would have gone to New Orleans unless the staff had promised him a reasonably large role in the offence. Because of this, I can't see Ingram getting anymore than 50% of the carries this season.
But just when it looked like things couldn't get any worse, the Saints then drafted Alvin Kamara in the third round, a pass catching back. All this leaves Ingram splitting carries on the ground with Peterson and losing opportunities in the passing game to Kamara.
I think Ingram's only hope is that Peterson's age plays a factor and the ex-Viking picks up an injury early on in the season. Barring that, I can't see Ingram being inside the top 25 scoring fantasy running backs at the end of the season.
Brandin Cooks - New England Patriots
I'm going to keep it short and simple with Cooks. I just can't see Brady throwing him the ball that often. The way the Patriots offence tends to work means that no single player gets a huge amount of targets and the ball is shared around (and there's lots of people Cooks has to share with).
Looking at both the style and amount of running backs on the roster in New England leads me to believe that Brady will continue to throw to RB's often throughout the season, taking targets away from the receivers in general. Also, I think Cooks is going to third in receptions behind both Gronk and Edelman leaving the ex-Saint in a position where he's not going to be touching the ball very often.
Despite the fact that Cooks has big play ability, the lack of volume will really affect his production and, much like Keenan Allen, I see him being a low end WR2 and I certainly won't be drafting him in the first 4 rounds of any fantasy draft this year.
Russel Wilson - Seattle Seahawks
In standard scoring leagues, Wilson finished 11th amongst QB's last year in fantasy football and I see it much more likely that we see a decline than a rise in 2017.
There are two main reasons behind my thinking. Firstly, the offensive line in Seattle wasn't great last year and I don't see it being any better this year. Yes they drafted Ethan Popic in the second round of the draft but I don't feel he's going to come in and make a big difference.
The second reason is that I think the Seahawks, especially their defence with Chancellor fit again, will be better in 2017 which should mean Wilson won't be needing to throw the ball as much at the end of the games like he did in 2016.
I really like Wilson as an NFL player but I don't like his fantasy football value for this coming season. I can't see him being an every week starter for your team but more as a solid backup or a plug in player when he has a favourable matchup.
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Mowlem is a sports writer from Reading, United Kingdom. All articles are written by Reece Mowlem (unless stated otherwise).